ACOs often stand to benefit from moving to greater downside risk. However, this move is difficult to undertake if ACOs aren’t yet sure of their success in the prior year. Having a more accurate performance forecast in hand would allow successful ACOs to move confidently into greater risk (and reward) tracks.

Most ACOs do not use a sufficiently accurate national assignable trend factor. Even after recognizing the impact of national trend on shared savings, it is important to recognize that it’s still one of many inputs impacting shared savings. ACOs can improve their financials and mitigate risk exposure by proactively managing these inputs through multi-year scenario simulations.